The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again. John McCain and Barack Obama now each attract 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it's McCain 48% and Obama 48%.
One week ago today, Obama's bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage (see recent daily results). Now, for the first time in Election 2008, Rasmussen Markets data shows the race to be a toss-up.
Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
New state polls were released last night for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Montana. Additional state polls will be released each weeknight at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.
Premium Members can get an advance look at the daily tracking poll each morning and a sneak peak at the state polling results each afternoon at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can also review all the data we collect--not just the portion we make public. This includes full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and the national tracking poll demographics. Learn More.
Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 59% of the nation's voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends).
Throughout Election 2008, opinions have always been stronger about Obama than McCain. However, that gap is not as wide as it used to be. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 28% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are now 29% Very Favorable and 20% Very Unfavorable. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.
For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.
Premium Members can see Scott's Page, a video commentary. Today, Scott Rasmussen addresses why our polling shows a smaller bounce than Gallup. Also available are the latest numbers on whether people believe reporters are trying to help Barack Obama, help John McCain, or are most interested in providing unbiased coverage.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it's Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).
Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 59 % chance of winning in November. Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error--for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
