Political discord between Iraqi leaders and a resurgence of Al-Qaeda and Shiite extremism could still torpedo the significant security gains of US-led forces in Iraq, General David Petraeus said on Thursday as he prepared to transfer command of coalition troops.
Petraeus, who hands the baton as head of coalition forces in Iraq to General Raymond Odierno on September 16, told AFP in an interview that he was leaving behind a "significantly improved" Iraq but one still vulnerable to lethal attack by Al-Qaeda and Shiite extremists.
The general, credited with implementing the controversial military "surge" which has curbed violence, warned that Iraq's bitterly divided leaders who are "wrestling fundamental issues of high magnitude" could still ruin the security gains.
"A resurgence of Al-Qaeda, return of special groups (Shiite extremist cells) in some form and potential political discord turning into violence on the ground" could erase these gains, Petraeus said over coffee in his office at the US embassy.
He said the jihadist group was still not defeated but that "Al-Qaeda has been significantly damaged, degraded and is on the run." But it was still capable of launching "lethal, sensational, dangerous and barbaric attacks."
Al-Qaeda has been blamed by the US military for most of the brutal violence in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime.
Petraeus said Iraq had moved on from the horrific sectarian and insurgent violence that erupted in 2006.
"That horrific level of violence... when 55 bodies used to be found of people killed only in sectarian attacks... that kind of violence has been virtually eliminated, gone," he said referring to daily bloodletting in 2006.
"The cycle of violence that was fuelling sectarian violence is just not the feature of Baghdad at this point of time."
The reduction in violence, currently at a four-year low, has helped in withdrawing foreign combat troops from most provincial cities, he said.
"Actually we are out of the cities with combat forces in probably 14 of the provinces of Iraq... all but Baghdad, Diyala, Salaheddin and Nineveh.
"Even in Tamim (Nineveh) we are largely in the periphery of different cities," he said.
Following the significant drop in violence, US President George W. Bush on Tuesday announced plans to withdraw 8,000 troops from Iraq by the time he leaves the White House in January.
Washington also hailed Japan's decision on Thursday to halt its air mission by the end of 2008 as a sign of progress.
Assessing his 19-month tenure as the head of the coalition forces, Petraeus credited the surge strategy of "living with the Iraqis," the anti-Qaeda Sunni Arab fighters and the crackdown on Shiite militias for the dramatic fall in violence.
Citing an example of how two US brigades in a row had lost 50 soldiers in the so-called "triangle of death" south of Baghdad before the surge began, Petraeus said the current brigade has lost only one soldier in its first seven months.
This was achieved "because they (troops) lived with the people. They got rid of Al-Qaeda as people supported them," he said.
"The people told them where weapons caches are over time. You have to live with the people before they trust you enough to tell you where the bad guys are."
Petraeus accepted that both Baghdad and Washington knew that the insurgency could not have been tackled just by killing or capturing the rebels.
"There had to be political reconciliation with as many as possible. In many cases they were former insurgents like the Sons of Iraq," he said, referring to anti-Qaeda fighters.
The around 100,000 mostly Sunni Arabs, currently paid by the US military, will get their salaries from next month from the Baghdad government, which many feel is a potential cause for future worry.
A cautious Petraeus said that victory was still far off, however.
"We are not doing victory dances in the end zone," he said with a shrug of the shoulders.
"It is going to remain hard. Al-Qaeda remains dangerous and very adaptive, and there is a residual militia presence that could resort to criminal activity if allowed to do so," he said, adding that backing by Iranian groups to such militias "also appears to be diminishing" following pressure by Baghdad.
The goal is to achieve "irreversible momentum... but neither me nor ambassador (Ryan Crocker) believe that we have reached that irreversible momentum."
